Part of The Rogue AI Crisis · 14 stories · since Sep 22 · newest 9h ago
OpenAI's revenue signal turns murky, rattling AI stocksDiscrepancy traced to accounting-method mismatch with Anthropic
2 Oct 8 3:00 PM · 5d ago · 10 articles · 6 posts · 13 comments · 5 sources · development 2 of 7
Reporting indicated the $70bn figure arose when OpenAI's own investors tried to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic's revenue, which includes gross sales booked through cloud partners, while OpenAI records only its own net share.
“The headline should've been "OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled by us"”
underyx, commenter · hn ↗OpenAI AI company at center of the revenue disputeFinancial Times Outlet that broke the revenue discrepancyAnthropic Rival AI lab used as revenue comparison pointNvidia Chipmaker affected by the market reaction
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What was reported 2 claims about this development
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first by Bloomberg, 3d ago
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first by Bloomberg Tech, 4d ago
What people said 13 voices · verbatim
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There are bits and pieces of info scattered everywhere but no coherent picture. We know from a16z report [1] that only 2% of US households pay for AI subscriptions, so most of the seat based pricing comes from business and enterprise agreements. We know that OpenAI ads business has $1 billion USD in annualised revenue run rate [2]. We know from…
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> zero information on how it’s doingI think the fact that we have so little information is the most important information we have. If OpenAI had a sound business plan and was on strong financial footing, they'd have IPO'd.All of this continued stalling and obfuscation can only mean one thing, IMO: OpenAI has no long-term viability and they're…
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What regulation makes it so that a large private company would have to go public? You have it backwards. Increased regulations make it more burdensome for a company to go public, driving companies like OpenAI to remain private. If you made it less expensive and burdensome to IPO (decreased regulation), you would see companies go IPO earlier.This…
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It’s because this IPO is backed by those who grew up through the boom and bust of the dotcom era, so they know now to do all their growth in secret behind the scenes and then dump onto the market when there’s nothing more in that tank. Rather than letting the public have any major growth out of their baby, and only letting the price discovery…
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The crash of AI hype will be absolutely beautiful. Sure my 401K will probably tank, but this is honestly not the first time. Have plenty of assets not tied to stock market plus plenty of cash.Although, I suppose that saying, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent", is more true than ever.
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This is an interesting shift compared to the past where OpenAI would’ve been public a long time ago (due to various regulations) so we would have much more direct insight.Right now we have a ~$1 trillion company which a ton of the “economy” and valuations are based on, with near zero information on how it’s doing.
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The headline should've been "OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled by us". The FT is just reporting high number to create a story, then a low number to create another story.
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I'm waiting for the IPO; I was hoping we'd see less news like this prior. I'm not sure if plain shorting, or puts are the correct action; I suspect the former, as timing the latter is not reliable.
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>> "Oracle ... and other artificial intelligence companies"Uhm, that's definitely not their business, despite what they want to you to believe.
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“However, the new investor presentation shows close to $30bn annualised revenues in July.”2.5bn in revenue for all of July. That is a disaster.Squeaky bum time
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Nobody is quiet about doing well. And the frenetic release schedule of kinda half baked products tells a story (not a good one)
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Does this align with what Zitron was complaining about? Or is it a broken-clock-right-twice-a-day thing? neutral question.
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You don’t say…Anyway, if I had a hundred bucks to burn, I’d bet this is a move to undermine Anthropic’s IPO.
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