How it unfolded

1. Yesterday Report NAR releases July existing home sales data

   The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, slightly above economist expectations of 4.05 million.

2. Report Median home prices hit record July levels

   U.S. median sales price increased 2% year-over-year to $434,100 in July, continuing a 37-month streak of annual price increases. June saw an all-time high of $442,800 for any month since 1999.

3. Analysis Economist highlights locked-in mortgage problem

   Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, explained that homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages cannot afford to sell, suppressing inventory and preventing new sales.

   “No one who has a home already can afford to sell it. People with ultra-low COVID-era mortgages cannot afford to give them up.”

4. Report Inventory remains well below pre-pandemic levels

   Month-end inventory stood at 1.54 million unsold homes, translating to a 4.6-month supply at current sales pace—below the 5- to 6-month supply considered a balanced market and far short of the pre-pandemic norm of roughly 2 million homes.

5. Report First-time homebuyer share declines to 29%

   First-time homebuyers accounted for 29% of sales in July, down from 33% in June and below the historical norm of closer to 40%, reflecting affordability pressures.

6. Aug 3 Report Mortgage rates reach highest level in over a year

   Freddie Mac reported the benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 6.69%, marking the fifth consecutive week of rate increases and the highest level in just over a year.