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PoliticsActive today · day 6

Brazil Runoff Tightens: Flávio Holds Narrow Lead Over Lula Before Oct. 25

Multiple polls show Bolsonaro's son maintaining a slim edge, though some surveys fall within the margin of error.

newest coverage 4h agosummary written 6h ago12 pieces248 likes & upvotes17 comments NewswiresMastodonBlueskyX

What to know

  • Flávio Bolsonaro leads in most polls released between October 9-14, but the margin has narrowed significantly: early surveys showed a 5.6-point gap, while the latest polls show a 2-4 point lead or a statistical tie within the margin of error.
  • Multiple polling firms (AtlasIntel, Ipespe, PoderData, Datafolha, Quaest) confirm Flávio's edge, though recent PoderData and Quaest polls show the race tightening into near-parity.
  • Flávio leads on crime, fiscal policy, and the economy; Lula is competitive on poverty, inequality, and the environment; Lula's government approval sits at 43-44% with 50-53% disapproval.
  • The race decides Brazil's stance toward the U.S. and China, and betting markets still price Flávio as an 85% favorite despite poll tightening.

Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro Conservative presidential candidateLuiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva Incumbent presidentJair BolsonaroJair Bolsonaro Former president, Flávio's father

Brazil Runoff Tightens: Flávio Holds Narrow Lead Over Lula Before Oct. 25
Breitbart

How it unfolded 5 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

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Oct 10Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13yesterdaynow · 3:56 AM ET
  1. upcoming

    Evangelicals back Flávio 69% to 25%, but reject politicization of faith — A Le Monde survey finds that while 69% of evangelical voters support Flavio Bolsonaro compared to 25% for Lula, most worshippers oppose the politicization of religion during services and events ahead of the election.

  2. 5

    Quaest poll shows Flávio 46%, Lula 44%—within margin of error

    The latest Quaest poll released on October 14 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44% of valid votes, a 2-point gap that is also within the margin of error. Despite the tightening polls, betting markets still give Flávio an 85% chance of winning.

    “It's disheartening to see religion used by the far right…”
    — Survey respondent, Evangelical voter · source

    1. 2 outlets first by Straits Times, 10h ago · also Bloomberg Politics · read ↗

    2. 1 outlet Quaest Poll Puts Flávio at 46%, Lula at 44%

      first by Rio Times, 10h ago

    • 🇧🇷 Flávio Bolsonaro opens the Brazilian presidential runoff with a CLEAR edge over Lula. Quaest has Flavio at 46% and Lula at 44%. The margin of error is 2 points, so it is still a technical tie. Blank and null votes are at 9%. This is the first survey after the first

      @MarioNawfalX4h ago14▲view on X ↗
  3. 4

    Most recent polling aggregate shows Flávio 52% to Lula 48% across major pollsters

    A Rio Times summary of the latest wave from four major pollsters shows Flávio maintaining a narrow 4-point lead on average, though individual polls vary from a 5.6-point gap to a statistical tie.

    1. 1 outlet Who Leads Brazil’s Runoff 11 Days Out

      first by Rio Times, 16h ago

  4. 3

    PoderData poll narrows gap to statistical tie: Flávio 51%, Lula 49%

    A PoderData/Aya poll shows the race tightening significantly, with Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes—a difference of 2 points that falls within the poll's 1.8 percentage-point margin of error, effectively a statistical tie.

    1. 1 outlet first by Bloomberg Markets, 1d ago · read ↗

    • Lula Narrows Gap to Bolsonaro in PoderData Poll https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 26-10-13/brazil-election-lula-narrows-gap-to-bolsonaro-in-poderdata-poll?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into Bloomberg Television @ bloomberg-television-bloomberg

      bloomberg@flipboard.comMastodon1d agoview on Mastodon ↗
  5. 2 days quiet
  6. 2

    Ipespe poll confirms Flávio lead at 52.7% to 47.3%

    A second major poll from Ipespe, conducted October 6-8 among 1,500 voters, shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 52.7% of valid votes to Lula's 47.3%. The poll also finds voters believe Flávio is winning the media battle, rating his TV and radio campaign 43% to 34% and his WhatsApp presence 44% to 30%.

    “The movement since AtlasIntel's previous round is large. That round, with interviews ending on Friday 2 October, had Lula at 47.6% and Flávio at 47.4%.”
    — Rio Times, News outlet · source
  7. 1

    AtlasIntel poll shows Flávio ahead 52.8% to 47.2%

    The first major post-first-round poll, conducted by AtlasIntel from October 3-8 among 5,026 voters, gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 5.6-point lead over Lula in valid votes. The survey shows Flávio gained 3.7 points since AtlasIntel's previous round while Lula lost 1.9 points.

    1. 1 outlet Brazil Poll Gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.8%, Lula 47.2%

      first by Rio Times, 5d ago

      1 more headline
    2. 1 outlet Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Socialist Lula in First Pre-Runoff Polls

      first by Breitbart, 5d ago

  8. background

    Flávio wins first round, triggers runoff — The first round of Brazil's presidential election takes place, with Flávio Bolsonaro finishing ahead and setting up a runoff against incumbent President Lula on October 25.

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