Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal; Experts Doubt It Will Lower U.S. Prices
President Trump says Russian fuel imports will drive diesel prices down, but energy analysts say the volumes are too small to move markets.
What to know
- Trump administration announced Russian diesel imports totaling ~36 million barrels over months, claiming it will drive U.S. prices down from current $6.27/gallon average.
- Energy experts argue the volumes—roughly one week of U.S. consumption—will have negligible impact and merely redirect existing Russian supply rather than add new global supply.
- Social media discussion splits between skeptics doubting Russia's capacity to deliver and critics viewing the deal as geopolitical betrayal that funds Russia's war with Ukraine.
The dispute Whether the announced Russian diesel will have any material effect on U.S. prices—experts and commenters argue the volumes are too small, but the administration claims they will drive prices down significantly. · positions read across 31 posts and comments
The deal is economically meaningless; 36 million barrels is only days of U.S. consumption and won't move prices.
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“36 mil barrels of diesel is a week's consumption for the U.S., it makes almost no difference, and trump is selling us out to putin for it.”
Krammsy · Reddit ↗
The deal funds Russia's war with Ukraine and betrays longstanding U.S. support for Ukrainian defense.
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“Every purchase of Russian diesel is the USA reneging on its support of Ukraine to give liquidity to their enemy. Ferengi would be proud”
NorridAU · Reddit ↗
Russia lacks refining capacity to deliver promised volumes and the deal is a political stunt.
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“Its all just a political stunt for midterms. Russia's refining capacity has taken too many hits from Ukraine. How can Russia export when they are struggling themselves?”
Useful-Contribution4 · Reddit ↗
“Adding hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel to the global markets will lower prices.”
White House official, Trump administration · CBS News ↗ · Oct 11
President Trump U.S. PresidentMichael Lynch Energy analyst, Energy Policy Research FoundationWhite House official Trump administration spokesperson
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Energy experts question effectiveness of Russian diesel imports
Energy Policy Research Foundation fellow Michael Lynch told the Associated Press that Russian diesel simply redirects supply from existing customers rather than adding net supply to global markets. A White House official countered that adding hundreds of thousands of tons will lower prices, but Lynch argued that effect would be negligible.
“If we get diesel from Russia, basically it means that their existing customers are not going to get it and they'll have to go somewhere else, and that will keep the price basically where it is now.”
— Michael Lynch -
first by CBS News, 2d ago
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He doesn't want to normalize relations with Russia. He doesn't even know what any of those words mean, much less can he conceptualize why he might want to "normalize relations". What he wants is to cling to all the power he can at any cost, and at the moment dropping diesel prices before the midterms may help him do that, so he's taking the most…
2 more of the top 3 · 6 posts in this stretch
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36 mil barriles son como 2‑3 días de consumo de EE UU; es una gota en el océano. El efecto en el precio será insignificante, pero usar eso como un “rayón” electoral solo alimenta la política interna y, si sirve para financiar a Rusia, es un tacón a la credibilidad de las sanciones. La solución real sería restaurar la dignidad del mercado y…
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He promised Europe to Putin. Its long known Trump thinks every power should have its playground. Trumpwant North / South America. He doesnt care if Putin takes all of Europe and / or China taking Asia. He is a simple men with a very simple mind trying to fit the world into his simple worldview. Simple as that.
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- 1 day quiet
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Reddit users challenge supply volume and geopolitical implications
Commenters across multiple Reddit threads emphasize that the announced volumes—36 million barrels total—represent only days of U.S. diesel consumption (roughly 3.65 million barrels per day). Discussion centers on whether Russia can physically deliver, the logistics of transport, and concerns about funding Russia's war with Ukraine.
“36 mil barrels of diesel is a week's consumption for the U.S., it makes almost no difference, and trump is selling us out to putin for it.”
— Krammsy -
The Ukrainian war will end with land concession to Russia. It's inevitable to the point the CIA said that was the case. America and western countries have supported them as much as is possible but unfortunately Russia still holds all the cards. If Russia wanted it could massively ramp up the war tomorrow, more troops, nuclear arsenal, more…
2 more of the top 3 · 25 posts in this stretch
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Its all just a political stunt for midterms. Russia's refining capacity has taken too many hits from Ukraine. How can Russia export when they are struggling themselves? Ukraine will likely hammer them even more. Because if they do start to sell, that is more income for Russia to continue the war. End result: if anything does come its going to take…
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Russian Diesel is sanctioned for years, everything went great and smooth till Trump attacked Iran and was incapable of securing US allies in the Golf. Don’t blame Ukraine for defending their life and country. It’s all a scam for some billionaires to be richer…on paper. Trump does not care about any American. This is not business, it’s called…
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background
Trump announces Russian diesel import plan — President Trump announced on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, an additional 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons thereafter. The Treasury Department issued an OFAC license allowing Russia to begin selling diesel to the U.S.
What people are saying 17 voices from 1 site · best of 31 · verbatim
- Can Russia physically deliver the promised volumes given reported refining capacity damage from Ukraine?
- How much profit do intermediaries make on these sales, and does that profit margin reduce any theoretical price impact?
- What is the total cost to the U.S. for these diesel volumes, and how does it compare to the theoretical savings?
- Yesterday
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Perhaps, but he should have calculated the political backlash as well. If he wants to normalize relations with Russia, it will be a process not an event. He chose poorly.
- Oct 11
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All Trump and friends had to do was NOTHING! The economy was improving under Biden, fuel prices were affordable. He could have sat back and let things work out and taken all the credit
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It’s clear he will not deliver and instead blame Ukraine and get his orange fuckpoodle in the whitehouse to shift sanctions from Moscow to Kiev.
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I think that works out closer to 10 days than 2.5. The full 4.8 million tons is about 36 million barrels and US distillate demand was 3.65 million barrels a day in the week ending Oct 2 (EIA) but only the first 300k tons and November's 500k have timing attached.
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Have the US many refining facilities? If so, it could be a case of transfer and refine in the states, although the cost of that could be huge so it will be interesting to see the numbers on this
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This first deal will supply us with 14 hours of diesel. In all (if we’re to trust what they say) we will get 9 days worth. And pay $8 billion.
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That is if Russia even delivers it.. they are running short on refined fuel so unlikely they have much if any to spare. All politicians are the same.. blah blah blah
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It will to the Russian’s and the war with Ukraine. Trump family will profit AND reap revenge on Zelensky. It’s a petty win and a financial boon.
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I don't feel like Trump is smart enough to think this far ahead. I mean it's a stupid ass plan regardless, but I still don't think Trump could come up with this.
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One question, how much was the Russian fuel bought for, who bought it and how much will the markup be when they sell it. Ultimately this is only about 30-35 million barrels over many months. US usage is ~4. million barrels per day, or ~120 million barrels per month. This amount may not have a significant impact, even if it reaches market.
- Oct 10
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yeah but the 36 million barrels have to traverse the Gulf, be loaded onto tankers, then split into trucks—by the time they hit pumps the market has already absorbed most, so the dip is only a blip
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I don't think Russia is even effectively supply diesel to its own country right now, how are they going to supply millions of barrels to the USA???
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exactly, its to a) take the blame off Trump's war with Iran and blame Ukraine b) take the lack of a peace deal off Trump's bogus promise and blame the victim for not surrendering
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Right; the 36 million barrels is a drop in the ocean. Even if all flowed at once it would feel like a 5-minute shake to a full tank in the US, no real change over the long haul.
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Every purchase of Russian diesel is the USA reneging on its support of Ukraine to give liquidity to their enemy. Ferengi would be proud
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Ukraine has just bombed the No 1 Russian Refinery after the deal was announced. So no, it won't make a difference, in fact things will probably get much worse.
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Even if the agreement goes through 100% it's small fries. Not defending Trump BTW. It's an evil deal between to evil leaders.