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SecurityActive today · day 5

Cloudflare data: Russian bot traffic didn't vanish after Yandex strikes, it moved

Analysis of Cloudflare Radar data finds no evidence that Ukrainian drone strikes on Yandex data centers disrupted Russian bot farms or influence operations.

What to know

  • Cloudflare's own traffic data is the basis for both the viral 'bots went dark' claim and the rebuttal of it, since two different Yandex ASNs (search vs. cloud) behaved very differently.
  • The search-crawling ASN (AS13238) did collapse with the strikes, but the cloud-hosting ASN's (AS200350) bot traffic — which looked more like software/script traffic than verified crawlers — showed no detectable global disruption.
  • Commenters are split between those who see this as debunking an overhyped meme and those who argue Cloudflare's rebuttal itself misses the larger story of Russian infrastructure centralization and surveillance risk from the strikes.

The dispute Whether Cloudflare's traffic data actually proves anything about social media bot activity, given Cloudflare has little visibility into platforms like X, Facebook, or TikTok where the alleged influence operations run. · positions read across 25 posts and comments

most voices

The Cloudflare data confirms the 'Russian bots went dark' narrative was always just an unfounded meme based on vague tweets.

  • “Buried lede:>across Cloudflare's network, there was no evidence that the strikes knocked social media manipulation offline or otherwise disrupted malicious activity on the Internet.<p>This directly refutes the popular memes going around…”

    gruez · Hacker News ↗
some voices

The real story is Russia's dangerous centralization of state services into a few providers like Yandex, which Cloudflare's framing ignores.

  • “Confusing crawlbots for spambots missed the far bigger story: Russian government has encouraged adoption of digital services and centralization of them into a small number of handpicked "winners", who form the backbone of state…”

    mopsi · Hacker News ↗
some voices

No one can really verify what happened; both sides of the conflict have incentives to spin the story, and Cloudflare's own data visibility is limited.

  • “Rhetorical claims that refute isn't really evidence either, just an attempt to null out the prevailing narrative; SEO spam”

    bubbluppugus · Hacker News ↗

Cloudflare Internet infrastructure company / analysis authorMarina Elmore Co-author of Cloudflare blog postLai Yi Ohlsen Co-author of Cloudflare blog postYandex Russian tech company whose data centers were struck

Cloudflare data: Russian bot traffic didn't vanish after Yandex strikes, it moved
blog.cloudflare.com

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments

Peak 16 pieces in two hours at Oct 14, 4 PM; 48 pieces over 5 days (12 articles · 19 posts · 17 comments) Oct 12, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 12, 4 AM — quietOct 12, 6 AM — quietOct 12, 8 AM — quietOct 12, 10 AM — quietOct 12, 12 PM — quietOct 12, 2 PM — quietOct 12, 4 PM — quietOct 12, 6 PM — quietOct 12, 8 PM — quietOct 12, 10 PM — quietOct 13, 12 AM — quietOct 13, 2 AM — quietOct 13, 4 AM — quietOct 13, 6 AM — quietOct 13, 8 AM — quietOct 13, 10 AM — quietOct 13, 12 PM — quietOct 13, 2 PM — quietOct 13, 4 PM — quietOct 13, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Oct 13, 8 PM — quietOct 13, 10 PM — quietOct 14, 12 AM — quietOct 14, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — X 1Oct 14, 4 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 2Oct 14, 6 AM — quietOct 14, 8 AM — quietOct 14, 10 AM — quietOct 14, 12 PM — quietOct 14, 2 PM — quietOct 14, 4 PM — 16 pieces · 4 articles · 2 posts · 10 comments — Hacker News 11, Newswires 3, Mastodon 2Oct 14, 6 PM — 3 pieces · 1 post · 2 comments — Hacker News 2, Mastodon 1Oct 14, 8 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 14, 10 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Hacker News 1Oct 15, 12 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 15, 2 AM — 2 pieces · 2 comments — Hacker News 2Oct 15, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 15, 6 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Oct 15, 8 AM — 5 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts · 2 comments — Reddit 2, Hacker News 1, Mastodon 1, +1 moreOct 15, 10 AM — quietOct 15, 12 PM — 3 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts — Reddit 2, Google News 1Oct 15, 2 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Oct 15, 4 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 15, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Mastodon 1Oct 15, 8 PM — quietOct 15, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Yesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 8 AM — quiet 12
Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15yesterdaynow · 10:03 AM ET
  1. 2

    HN discussion disputes both the bot narrative and Cloudflare's framing

    The Cloudflare post reached Hacker News front page, where commenters debated whether the original 'bots went dark' memes were ever credible and whether Cloudflare's rebuttal itself glossed over a bigger story about Russian infrastructure centralization.

    “Ukraine did not take Russian social media bots offline by bombing a server farm…”
    — jjaron.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy
    • knurd42@social.linux.pizza

      ""Following reported strikes on # Yandex data centers, claims circulated on the Internet that Russian bot farms and influence operations had been knocked offline. […] However, aggregate traffic metrics can easily mislead. […] we analyzed how these two ASNs were affected — and while both saw drops in traffic, they saw differing impact. Yandex…

      knurd42@social.linux.pizzaMastodon2d ago1▲view on Mastodon ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 23 posts in this stretch
    • The popular memes that were based on people's assumptions or guesses or stories based on... cloudflare own tweets!https://x.com/cloudflareradar/status/2108122893028671604https://x.com/CloudflareRadar/status/2110113211059994638Which cloudflare also doesn't mention, that their vague and misleading tweet was responsible for these rumors that they are…

      jrochkind1Hacker News2d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    • Hasn’t the news been saying they didn’t hit the data center at all, and that they actually attacked an oil refinery? They definitely hit 3 Yandex datacenters + one or two Sber ones. It definitely resulted in cloud-hosted services being down, from taxi to b2b solutions and web scrappers. There's no evidence that malicious bots were affected.

      nikshdevr/technology2d agoview on r/technology ↗
    all of them →
  2. 1

    Cloudflare publishes analysis refuting the bot-collapse narrative

    Cloudflare's blog post, using Radar and Bot Management data, finds that Yandex Search's crawler traffic (93.6% Verified bots) collapsed, but Yandex.Cloud's unverified, app-like bot traffic showed no evidence of a global disruption to malicious activity.

    “across Cloudflare's network, there was no evidence that the strikes knocked social media manipulation offline or otherwise disrupted malicious activity on the Internet…”
    — Cloudflare
  3. background

    Yandex networks remain disrupted days after the strikes — Both Yandex ASNs stayed 86-90% below normal baselines through October 13, with traffic still at 85% of normal as of October 14 18:00 UTC.

  4. background

    Online claims spread that Russian bot farms went offline — HTTP traffic charts showing steep drops fueled speculation on social media that the strikes had disabled Russian bot farms and influence operations.

  5. background

    Yandex network traffic collapses to near-total outage — Traffic plummeted to 99% below baseline for Yandex Search (AS13238) and 90% below baseline for Yandex.Cloud (AS200350), per Cloudflare Radar.

  6. background

    Ukrainian drone strikes begin hitting Yandex data centers — Reported strikes hit three Yandex facilities in Russia between October 7 and 11, progressively knocking data centers and network capacity offline.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. first by Mastodon, 2d ago · also HN Best, HN Frontpage, Cloudflare Blog

    1 more headline

and 5 smaller pieces

What people are saying 21 voices from 3 sites · best of 25 · verbatim

Still unanswered
  • Did social media engagement from Russian accounts actually drop during the outage, independent of Cloudflare's web-traffic data?
  • What are the broader consequences of Yandex.Cloud being degraded for over a week for ordinary Russian users and businesses?