September CPI hits 3.7%, inflation's worst pre-midterm reading in decades
Gas and energy prices tied to the Iran war pushed U.S. inflation to 3.7% in the final report before midterm voting, as real wages fell.
Part of a larger narrative
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- US inflation jumps to 3.7% in final CPI report before midterms
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- September CPI hits 3.7%, inflation's worst pre-midterm reading in decadesyou are here
- Fed minutes signal another rate hike likely before year-end despite Trump pressure
- Trump's "greatest economy" claim collides with rising gas and inflation data
What to know
- September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year (0.6% month-over-month), above forecasts and up from 3.4% in August; core CPI rose 2.6%.
- Gasoline, fuel oil and other energy costs — linked by several outlets to the Iran war — drove most of the increase, while real earnings fell 0.5%.
- It is the last inflation report before the midterm elections, landing amid polling showing voter anger over the cost of living under Trump.
- Markets sharply raised bets on an October Federal Reserve rate hike, with odds jumping 25 points to 43% in a single day.
Donald Trump U.S. PresidentBureau of Labor Statistics Federal agency that released the CPI reportFederal Reserve Central bank weighing an October rate decision@KobeissiLetter Financial commentatorDemocratic Party Political opposition ahead of midterms
How it unfolded 7 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesvideospostscomments
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7
Report lands as a political blow to Republicans before midterms
Coverage framed the data as the highest pre-midterm inflation rate since 1990 outside the pandemic, arriving amid polling showing public anger over the cost of living under the Trump administration.
“Republicans are entering the midterm elections with the highest rate of inflation since the spring.”
— The Guardian -
1 outlet first by Guardian Business, 18h ago · read ↗
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first by Daily Wire, 1d ago
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🚨🇺🇲 Inflation is climbing yet AGAIN... U.S. consumer prices JUMPED 0.6% in Sept, the biggest increase in 5 months, pushing annual inflation to 3.7%. The price surge puts fresh pressure on Trump as affordability remains a key concern heading into the midterms (just 3 weeks
2 more of the top 3 · 94 posts in this stretch
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Cmon. This regime has been lying and covering up real data since the inauguration.
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It’s not that the means of gathering data is worse now than it was then, I have been saying that the 1970s methodology (which measured inflation in a cost of goods index) is better for understanding actual consumer inflation than the modern, which tracks a cost of living index. The three original examples as follows: OER accurately measures what…
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Traders sharply raise bets on an October Fed rate hike
Market-implied odds of an October rate hike jumped to 43%, up 25 percentage points in a single day, following the hotter-than-expected inflation data.
“Market expectations for an October rate hike surge to 43% after US CPI inflation hits its third highest level since September 2023.”
— @KobeissiLetter -
first by Mastodon, 19h ago · also KSTP-TV, Star Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, Boston Globe, Chicago Tribune, PBS NewsHour
1 more headline
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BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike surge to 43% after US CPI inflation hits its third highest level since September 2023. October rate hike expectations are up +25 percentage points today. Another highly uncertain Fed decision is ahead.
2 more of the top 3 · 47 posts in this stretch
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They thought Covid was the reason for the massive failures in the first trump administration so they voted for the " businessman " again. It's him. It's always him. He was $13 billion in debt in 2016. Not anymore.
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🟠 UPDATE US Inflation Rises in September Ahead of Midterms The US CPI rose 3.7% in September, exceeding market expectations. The increase was driven by soaring gasoline prices resulting from rising international oil costs. 📰 https://www. msn.com/en-xl/money/economy/us -cpi-jumps-3-7-raising-federal-reserve-rate-hike-chances/ar-AA2eedAo # USA #…
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Commentators tie the price spike to the Iran war
The Financial Times and other outlets attributed the rebound in fuel prices to the war in Iran, noting it was piling pressure on Americans just before the midterms.
“US inflation jumps to 3.7% as Iran war drives up prices…”
— Financial Times -
B
"Inflation rose to a 3.7 percent annual pace in September, extending a relentless climb this year pushed by surging energy prices, as many Americans are already feeling pressure..."
2 more of the top 3 · 87 posts in this stretch
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Your earnings are DOWN .5%. Things cost 3.7% more. The average American household pays $1,020 more. TRUMP DID THIS!!! REPUBLICANS DID THIS!!! https://www. theguardian.com/business/2026/ oct/14/inflation-numbers-september
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You don't think an Index ETF going down .7ish% in less than 5 minutes is significant? I mean I'm sure there have been bigger drops, but that feels pretty significant to me. I don't know. I've only been actively following the markets for a few years so I'm still new
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Energy and fuel costs drive the surge, data shows
Breakdowns of the report showed fuel oil up 74% and gasoline up 34.2% year-over-year, with electricity up 4.4% and groceries up 1.8%, while real earnings fell 0.5% in September.
“Fuel oil: +74% year over year. Gasoline: +34.2% year over year. Electricity: +4.4% year over year. Groceries: +1.8% year over year.”
— meidastouch.com -
first by CBS News, 20h ago · also Straight Arrow
1 more headline
- Inflation rose in September, crucial pre-election report shows Straight Arrow · 20h ago
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first by CBS News, 20h ago
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🚨 BREAKING: Inflation comes in HOT. September inflation surged to 3.7% year over year, with core inflation also exceeding forecasts. Prices jumped 0.6% in just ONE MONTH. Meanwhile, real earnings fell 0.5% in September.
2 more of the top 3 · 9 posts in this stretch
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BREAKING: September CPI inflation rises to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6% Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, also above expectations of 2.5%. This officially marks the third highest US inflation reading since September 2023. Rate hike expectations are rising on the news.
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Across the board? How is taking more from a family of four making under 100k a year going to solve anything?
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BLS reports September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index showing a 3.7% annual increase, up from 3.4% in August, with prices up 0.6% on the month — the biggest monthly gain in five months. Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year.
“September CPI inflation rises to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%. Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, also above expectations of 2.5%. This officially marks the third highest US inflation reading since September 2023.”
— @KobeissiLetter -
first by CNBC, 19h ago
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first by HN Frontpage, 20h ago
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Inflation likely worsened in September in one of the last price reports the government will issue before the midterm elections that have been heavily defined by concerns over affordability.
2 more of the top 3 · 3 posts in this stretch
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Live Coverage of US CPI Report for September https://www. bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2 026-10-14/us-cpi-for-september-live-updates?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into Bloomberg Television @ bloomberg-television-bloomberg
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At this rate, we’re not even fighting inflation anymore; we’re just witnessing the slow-motion subscription-ification of existing. Everything is now a monthly fee, including the privilege of breathing air.
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Analysts forecast another acceleration in CPI
Ahead of the official release, coverage previewed that the September inflation data was expected to show price increases accelerating further.
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first by CNN, 20h ago · also CNBC, WSJ US Business, Guardian, The Hill
4 more headlines
- Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% CNBC · 20h ago
- Inflation Rose to 3.7% in September, Hotter Than Expected WSJ US Business · 20h ago
- US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, figures show Mastodon · 20h ago
- Inflation rose to 3.7 percent in September: BLS The Hill · 20h ago
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first by Investing.com News, 1d ago · also Quartz, Reuters
1 more headline
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Goodnight 🌙 The latest inflation data shows price increases are accelerating
1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
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https://www. europesays.com/unitedstates/34 556/ Americans’ Inflation Expectations Hit Highest Level Since 2023 as Their Financial Outlook Worsens: New York Fed Survey # 401k # Business # BusinessNews # Economy # FederalReserve # finance # FinancialInformation # Investing # InvestmentTools # Investor # MarketNews # mortgage # MutualFunds #…
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- 4 days quiet
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Consumer inflation expectations climb to 3.9%
A survey showed U.S. consumers' median 1-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September, the highest since May 2023 and up 0.9 points since February.
“US consumer median 1-year ahead inflation expectations jumped +0.3 percentage points in September, to 3.9%, their highest level since May 2023.”
— @KobeissiLetter -
Americans are worried about inflation. US consumer median 1-year ahead inflation expectations jumped +0.3 percentage points in September, to 3.9%, their highest level since May 2023. This figure has risen +0.9 percentage points since February. Over the next year, consumers
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“.. Consumers’ estimates for inflation one-year ahead rose to a median 3.9% in September, up from 3.6% the prior month and reaching the highest level since May of 2023.” @bloomberg.com
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https://www. europesays.com/unitedstates/22 386/ Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023 # BreakingNews # BreakingNews :Economy # BreakingNews :Markets # BusinessNews # Economy # FederalReserve # Inflation # InterestRates # Prices # RogerWilliams
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Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet
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first by Mercury News, 20h ago · also Denver Post, Baltimore Sun, Orlando Sentinel
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4 outlets Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
first by CNBC, 7d ago · also Anadolu Agency, Investing.com News, Seeking Alpha
3 more headlines
- US consumer inflation expectations hit highest since May 2023 Anadolu Agency · 7d ago
- US inflation expectations rise to highest since May 2023 Investing.com News · 7d ago
- Year-ahead U.S. inflation expectations hit highest since May 2023 Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
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first by Mastodon, 20h ago · also NBC News, FT
2 more headlines
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first by Bloomberg Economics, 7d ago · also ZeroHedge, Quartz
3 more headlines
- Consumer Inflation Fears Jump to Three-Year High as New York Fed Survey Shows 3.9% One-Year Outlook Political.org · 7d ago
- One-Year Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year HIgh: NY Fed Survey ZeroHedge · 7d ago
- Americans' inflation expectations rose to a 3-year high in September, NY Fed says Quartz · 7d ago
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first by BBC, 19h ago · also BBC Business
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first by Washington Times, 20h ago · also Washington Examiner
1 more headline
- Inflation increased to 3.7% in last consumer price index report before midterm elections Washington Examiner · 20h ago
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first by Anadolu Agency, 20h ago · also Quartz
1 more headline
- Gasoline rose 9.1% in September, pushing overall inflation to 3.7% Quartz · 20h ago
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first by ABC News, 1d ago · also Philadelphia Inquirer
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first by Buenos Aires Times, 1d ago · also MarketWatch
1 more headline
and 15 smaller pieces
What people are saying 13 voices from 4 sites · best of 245 · verbatim
- Today
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To hit the Fed's 2.0% annual target, monthly core inflation needs to average roughly 0.165% per month. A sustained 0.6% monthly pace is more than triple that target rate. 0.6 per mo is 7.44% annualized. We’re continuing to head in the wrong direction after almost reaching the target.
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Go grocery shopping like the rest of adults do sometime. All I see are bunch of wannabe Wall Street traders on here talking about things they understand nothing about. I doubt anyone here has a degree worth a damn. How many Americans do you know personally who are only spending 3.7% more? Tell me.
- Yesterday
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Trump is unabashedly corrupt, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that democrats are saints. What if I told you that everyone in Congress abides by the same rules, or lack thereof? They’re above the law, and we all know it by know. The insider trading is rampant and isn’t dominated by any single party. Pelosi’s cumulative return while in office was
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Ok. Again, housing is a component of a households income. So, comparing the two is meaningless. Since a 60% rise in something that’s 30% of your budget is less than a 36% increase in your budget. AND, since rises in home prices affect a minority of Americans, the real impacts are lower than the back of the envelope math above But again, I actually…
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The worst part of all this is that they are now going to raise rates when this is not money supply driven inflation. You cannot lower inflation by interest rates when it is caused by rising oil and ferilizer prices.But I am afraid this is what they will do to screw the democrats after they take the house and the senate and then blame the market…
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Here in Ireland it seems like I'll be spending north of 1k in oil heating thanks to certain armed conflicts... and I still have 200 liters from the previous owner. 840 EUR for 500 liters, who knows if that will be enough for this winter.
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A good opportunity for everyone to start thinking about improving their (current/future) home insulation - if they can afford it, that is.For example in the EU, while good insulation has always been a given in the Nordics for obvious reasons (although modern buildings are even better!), it's only relatively recently that these topics have started…
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Heating oil prices increasing 26% in August and September, up 74% YoY... it's going to be a horrible winter for a lot of families, mine included. Heating bills are going to be over $1k / month for a lot of the northeast. You can't budget for a 75% increase in a major expense.
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AP: Inflation worsened last month to 3.7% as midterm elections near Economy Oct 14, 2026 9:37 AM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation accelerated last month as gas, clothes, and air fares got more expensive, evidence that rising prices remain an economic challenge just a few weeks before the midterm elections that have focused heavily on issues…
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>The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.Convenient how it doesn't also include housing cost increases, as if that's not part of day-to-day living, like we're all snails carrying our house on our back…
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation accelerated last month to 3.7% in a sign that prices remain elevated as midterm elections near.
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NEW: CPI inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in data released this morning, hitting the second-highest level since 2023 while increasing 0.6% month-on-month Core CPI inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year, increasing 0.3% month-on-month
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Inflation heated up last month. Consumer prices rose 3.7%, while a core reading picked up to 2.6%.